《Weekly Forecast》Oct 5th 2020-
Last Week's Review Summary
| Forecast | VOO will stay between 50 days SMA and 100 days SMA. However, volatility might increase as 20 days SMA falls to 50 days SMA, which signales a dead cross within the next few weeks. |
| Result |
VOO broke through 50 SMA once, but it came back under 50 SMA on Friday as President Trump's COVID19 infection changed a market sentiment. The final price last week is still slightly above 20 SMA. |
Technical Analysis
VOO Short Term
| SMA | 50 SMA and 20 SMA have formed a dead cross. Monday's trade will determine its resistance line, either 20 SMA or 50 SMA. If it turns out 20 SMA, it would be a sign of bear market for a next couple of weeks. |
| Volume | Not significant |
| MACD | MACD has formed a golden cross. Same as SMA, Monday's trade will determine its way. If MACD returns to a down trend, it is a dangerous signal because a dead cross from a negative range dragged VOO from 250 down to 210 (-16%) in December 2018. |
| RSI | RSI indicates VOO to be a fair value. |
| Bollinger Band | Not significant |
VOO Long Term
| SMA | SMA still indicates uptrend, and VOO returned above 13 weeks SMA. |
| Volume | Not significant |
| MACD | MACD is almost forming a dead cross. It indicates a bear trend in the next couple of months. |
| RSI | RSI indicates VOO to be slightly overvalued. |
| Bollinger Band | Not significant |
Breaking News
US Presidential Election
5 swing states will determine the result; FL, OH, GA, NC, AZ.
In these swing states, Biden leads Trump overall, but the difference is limited.
Next Week Forecast
VOO will stay between 20 days SMA(306) and 100 days SMA(295). 20 days SMA will be a resistance line considering a negative sentiment by increasing possibility of Biden to be elected and by increasing concern on a delay in the additional stimulus.
*Disclosure
This blog is intended to be my personal notebook. It does not intend to affect an investment policy of anybody else.
